Ask an agency for their average. Then ask for their worst month
Scaling Socials publishes the worst month of every account it writes up, because an average can be built from two spectacular months carrying five poor ones. When judging an agency, the floor tells you what your business can plan around and the average does not.
Key takeaways
- An average ROAS says what an account made; the floor says what it can be planned around, which is the more useful number for a business.
- Ask for a month-by-month history rather than a headline figure, and specifically for the weakest month in the period.
- A mature account should not have bad months, and if it does, ask what was done with budget during them.
- Any result quoted without the brand's contribution margin is uninterpretable, including a good one.
Every agency leads with an average. It is the number most likely to flatter, because averages are built to absorb bad months.
A 7.5x average can come from two spectacular months carrying five mediocre ones, or from seven consistent months that never dipped. Those are completely different businesses to be a client of, and the average cannot tell them apart.
The floor is the number you plan against
For a brand, the useful question is not what the account made on its best month. It is what it reliably does not fall below.
That number determines what you can commit to inventory, what you can promise a lender, and how confidently you can hire. A 6.95x floor across seven consecutive months is a number you can build a plan on. A 7.5x average with a 3x month hidden inside it is not.
We publish the floor on every account we write up for this reason. On one kids accessories account we run, the weakest month across seven months returned 6.95x — and we lead the case study with that rather than the 8.75x peak, because the floor is the honest promise.
What to actually ask for
A month-by-month history, not a headline. Any agency with a real account can produce this in minutes. Reluctance is itself the answer.
The weakest month in the period, named. Then ask what they did about it. The answer tells you how they behave when things are not working, which is the part of the relationship that actually matters.
What happens to budget in a soft month. Pushing through a bad month at full spend buys a poor month at full price. Spending lighter and waiting for conditions to improve is a discipline, and it is visible in the numbers.
The contribution margin behind the result. A 4x on a 40% margin brand is profitable; the same 4x on a 20% margin brand is a slow loss. Without the margin, a quoted ROAS means nothing, however impressive it sounds.
Why this filters well
Asking these questions costs you nothing and reveals a great deal. An agency running real accounts will have the data and will usually be relieved to talk about it. An agency working from a deck will change the subject.
It also sets the relationship correctly from the start. If we tell you our worst month up front, we are not going to be surprised by yours, and neither are you.
Related reading
- Your Meta ads get traffic but no sales. It is probably not the ads When a D2C store gets clicks but few purchases, the cause is usually product, price, the website or the content. Here is how to tell which one it is.
- What the first 90 days of a new D2C ad account should look like A brand-new ad account has to buy its answers before it buys revenue. Scaling Socials on what to expect, what to measure, and when to scale.
- Ask who is actually doing the work on your account The person who sells the retainer is often not the person running the account. Scaling Socials on why that gap matters and what to ask before signing.
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